We are back in action this week as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers. We took the week off last week as there were no plays I felt confident about, but there are two props I really like this week.
If you’ve been keeping up with our bets you have some early season profits.
We’ve gone 3-1-1 through the first three weeks, as well as 2-0 in the preseason, bringing us to a win percentage over 80% on the year. The Steelers have a tough matchup this week against the Packers, but there are some matchups I expect the Steelers to exploit and allow us to take home some cash.
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1. Diontae Johnson over 6 receptions (-104)
This is a prop I like going to a lot based on the connection between Johnson and Ben Roethlisberger. Johnson was out last week, but should be full go this week and command double digit targets. Johnson has had 10 and 12 targets in his first two games and brought down 5 and 9 receptions in each game respectively. It's a broken record - Ben looks to Diontae often and will again this week, especially with Chase Claypool being ruled out with a hamstring injury. I expect a lot of quick passes to Johnson and him to record at least 8 receptions for the game.
2. Najee Harris over 14 rushing attempts (-110)
I like this prop a lot for a couple reasons. First, the Steelers have made it a priority to get Harris going early and often. They have tried running the ball multiple times early and have been successful, only to have penalties erase big runs and put them behind the chains. Mike Tomlin stressed all week how important it was for the offensive line to clean up the holding calls, so I suspect this line to come out with something to prove. Second, this number is entirely too low. Yes, the Steelers haven't given Harris as many rush attempts as they would like, but they have been behind the sticks and in negative play scripts a lot of the time. The only game that the Steelers were in a positive game script was against the Buffalo Bills and Harris had 16 carries. The Steelers clearly want Harris to play a major part in this offense and I expect them to feed him this week to the tune of at least 18 carries.
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BONUS BET: I usually do not bet the side, but I am going to add a bonus 6-point two-team teaser for Week 4.
Steelers +13 and Kansas City Chiefs -1 (-110): This is a get right game for both squads as both teams are coming off tough losses and unexpected 1-2 starts. The Chiefs are getting a bad Philadelphia Eagles team that is likely to be overwhelmed on offense and defense. This is basically a pick 'em with teasing the Chiefs down to -1 and the Packers are not beating the Steelers by two touchdowns. The Steelers have been playing bad, but this Packers team is not dominating anyone right now and the Steelers have a good chance to come out with a win outright.
What are you favorite bets this week? Sound off in the comments below!
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