There is no doubt in anyone's mind that this is one of the busiest offseasons in the past couple decades for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Adding several key additions through free agency, as well as landing one of the best 2023 draft classes around the NFL, has Steeler Nation ready to jump out of their seats.
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Steelers' Omar Khan and Mike Tomlin speak to media at a draft press conference introducing Broderick Jones.
With all of these new additions come higher expectations, and I am not sure anyone will need to live up to them more than QB Kenny Pickett in order for the Steelers to have success. There are few reasons for Pickett not to take the next step in terms of his performance. The Steelers added additional offensive linemen to sure up a couple weak links, added a Pro Bowl wide receiver, as well as drafted an ultra athletic tight end. He still has Matt Canada in his corner calling the plays, but that won't work as an excuse this season.
While I am confident, along with the rest of Steeler Nation, that Pickett will take a step forward and the Steelers will have a successful season, will that correlate to fantasy football relevancy for him? Let's take a look at his last year numbers and where he could end up this season.
Pickett wasn't the starter Week 1 for the Steelers last season, but he did start 12 games for the team, even though he did leave two early with injuries. That being said his 2022 season total stat line finished as follows:
Pass Completions/Attempts: 245/389 (63.0%)
Passing Yards: 2,404
Passing TDs: 7
Interceptions: 9
Rushing Yards: 237
Rushing TDs: 3
Overall, from a fantasy perspective, those numbers are underwhelming and he finished near the bottom of the league in terms of total fantasy points and points per game for quarterbacks.
Derik Hamilton/Associated Press
Steelers' Kenny Pickett scrambling.
Despite having a weak season from a fantasy perspective, the circumstances were not set up for Pickett to have overwhelming success. Pickett was thrown into a starting role behind an offensive line that needed time to gel, with a running game that was inconsistent, a very young wide receiving core, and a conservative game plan. With most of those issues resolved, his 2023 should be much better.
With a lot of the things the Steelers did the offseason geared towards giving Pickett everything he needs to succeed, he should be able to put together a much better season statistically. How much better than last season though is the question to ask, and Steeler Nation should do their best to temper their expectations.
The moves the Steelers made will help Pickett, but they also help the team continue to build towards their identity of a team that wants to run the ball consistently and often. The Steelers were 10th in the league in rushing attempts per game last season, despite never being a team that was consistently playing from ahead, and only came in as the 16th ranked team in terms of rushing yards per game. I would expect both of those numbers to improve this season with the offseason additions the Steelers made.
The running game being improved should definitely help the passing game open up for Pickett and company. Pairing a more open field, along with Pickett building a better connection with Diontae Johnson and second-year phenom George Pickens will result in a much more fluid passing offense. Adding in veteran wide receiver Allen Robinson also gives a nice safety blanket to fall back on.
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Pittsburgh Steelers QB Kenny Pickett and WR George Pickens celebrate a touchdown at Acrisure Stadium in 2022.
With all this being said, below are the stats I think that are realistic for Pickett next season, as well as where he would land from a fantasy perspective.
Projected 2023 Stat Line For Steelers QB Kenny Pickett
Pass Completions/Attempts: 360/550 (65.5%)
Passing Yards: 3,605
Passing TDs: 19
Interceptions: 11
Rushing Yards: 285
Rushing TDs: 3
Overall, that is a pretty solid stat line for a second year QB. The passing attempts are a little higher than I would like, but in Canada's offense, a lot of those passes are viewed as extensions of the running game. Now, where would this stat line land Pickett in terms of fantasy QB rankings? Assuming you're playing in a league with 4 points per passing touchdown, let's see where these stats land.
Total Fantasy Points: 244.7
Fantasy Points Per Game: 14.4
Fantasy Football QB Rank: 15-20
I believe it is somewhat needless to say, but if I am somewhat close on my stat predictions for Pickett's stats in 2023, than it would be wise for Steeler Nation to avoid taking him in most fantasy drafts. However, I don't think any one of us would care about his overall stats if it leads to the Steelers getting back to the playoffs and competing for another Lombardi Trophy.
What do you think about Pickett's potential year two leap and the possibility of him becoming a fantasy relevant QB? Let us know in the comments below!
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