Predicting The Steelers' "Easy" Schedule For 2023

The 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers have a lot of potential, but based on their upcoming schedule, how well can they do? They currently have the 8th "easiest" schedule in the NFL, but betting sites are only projecting the them to win 8.5 games. Strength of schedule is usually a pretty accurate metric for predicting how a season will go. Obviously, every year has its outliers and at the end of the day, these are professional sports with high level athletes, so anything can happen. Let's go through the schedule and try our best to predict what will happen, based on how the Steelers usually do in a specific month, historical record vs. specific teams, and more.

Week 1: 1PM vs. San Francisco

Well, it's been nine years, but the Steelers finally have a Week 1 game at home. Despite having a slew of injuries, the 49ers had one of the best defenses last year and have not had too much roster turnover. They also boast an impressive offense with a host of superstars. The 49ers lead the all-time series 12-10, with the last game being a 24-20 win for the 49ers in 2019. 

For Week 1 games in the Mike Tomlin era, the Steelers are 9-5-1, 4-1 at home and 5-4-1 on the road. With the raucous crowd that always shows up to Acrisure Stadium, this can shape up to be an impressive victory for Pittsburgh. Although the odds are against them, I predict that in a close game, the Steelers take this one. 1-0

Week 2: 8:15PM vs. Cleveland

This one should be pretty straight forward. Mike Tomlin is 19-3 on Monday Night Football. The Steelers lead the series 78-61-1 in the regular season, with Tomlin being 25-7-1 against the Browns. This should be another dub. 2-0

Week 3: 8:20PM @ Las Vegas

Another primetime game for the Steelers. They are overall 11-14 against the Raiders. Tomlin is 17-8 on Sunday Night Football. Although the Raiders don't boast the strongest squad, this game could prove to be tough. Traveling to the West Coast is never an easy feat. The Steelers also have an abysmal record when traveling to the West Coast (1-6). If Jimmy Garoppolo actually ends up playing for LV, then I can see this being a tough game. A one-score game, but alas their first loss. 2-1

Week 4: 1PM @ Houston

The Steelers are 5-2 against the Texans all-time. One impressive stat is that Pittsburgh is 23-4 against rookie QBs and with this defense having the quality it does, I don't see this changing. This relentless pass rush will give CJ Stroud nightmares. I see this as a convincing victory. 3-1

Week 5: 1PM vs. Baltimore

Oh yes, Steelers vs. Ravens, the rivalry above all other rivalries. These games are always tight, hard hitting, and brutal. Unless Lamar Jackson gets back to MVP form, I don't think this ends well for the Ravens. Against the Steelers, Jackson has just 4 TDs, 6 interceptions, and a 67.4 passer rating. He's also 2-3 in those meetings. Steelers are on a roll and the home crowd causes Jackson to have another terrible day. Steelers win and they're now 4-1 going into the bye week.

Week 6: Bye

Time to rest and get healthy before the onslaught of games to end the season. 

Week 7: 4:05PM @ Los Angeles

Yes, the Steelers boast a terrible West Coast record, but Mike T. has NEVER lost against this team. He is 4-0 to date. The Rams are also not in a great spot roster-wise. Many experts are already planning on the Rams being in contention for the number 1 overall pick in next year's NFL Draft. With a young roster and all of their superstars coming back from injury, this team doesn't show much promise. Sure, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald are game changers, but both are getting up there in age and coming off injuries. I think the West Coast Curse plays no part here, the fully rested Steelers win. 5-1 

Week 8: 1PM vs. Jacksonville

There is no denying, this is going to be a hard game. Although they had their ups and downs, the Jaguars are a talented roster, with a quality QB who is starting to put it all together and has talent around him. The Steelers are 13-12 all-time, with their last game being a win in 2020. Pittsburgh has off games, like every team does. I predict the Jaguars offense will be too much to handle at this point. Steelers lose this one. 5-2

Week 9: 8:15PM vs. Tennessee

Steelers' all-time record vs. Titans is 48-32 and they're 4-0 in the last four meetings (with the most recent being a win in 2021). As mentioned earlier, the Steelers are 23-4 against rookie QBs and, yes, I do believe that Will Levis will eventually get the start in Tennessee. He has dynamic playmaking ability that Ryan Tannehill just doesn't have. Tannehill does have the experience, but in a run heavy offense, I think Levis plays earlier than expected. The Steelers get another win over the Titans. 6-2

Week 10: 1PM vs. Green Bay

The Steelers have their third consecutive home game this year. The Packers lead the series 20-16, including a Steelers loss in 2021 and that agonizing Super Bowl loss back in 2011. This will be Jordan Love's year 4 season, and his first starting off the year as being at the helm. The Steelers usually struggle against the Packers and I don't think this changes. The Packers have talent despite inexperience on offense, but their defense has potential to be near elite. Steelers struggle. 6-3

Week 11: 1 PM @ Cleveland

The Steelers have the tendency to split these division games, but I don't see this being an issue. Sure, the Browns have talent, but Kenny Pickett is giving me vibes of Ben Roethlisberger, meaning his entire career is going to feature pure domination of the Browns. I see this as a statement game for Pickett. Big win. 7-3

Week 12: 1PM @ Cincinnati

The defense is rolling, the offense is gathering steam, and special teams is killing it this year, but we just don't have the firepower to finish this game out. Growing up in Cincinnati as a Steelers fan, it physically pains me to write this, but I think the Bengals take this one. This is around the time of year that the Bengals figure it all out and get red hot. I think this is Joe Burrow's MVP year and he lights the league up. Our defense tries its best, but I don't think we win this one. 7-4

Week 13: 1PM vs. Arizona

Steelers are 35-23-3 all-time vs. the Cardinals, with Arizona being 0-4 in the last meetings. There is no such thing as an easy game in the NFL, but this is pretty close. My intention isn't to dunk on the Cardinals, but after the surprise release of their three-time All-Pro receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, the retirement of JJ Watt, and the injury to franchise QB Kyler Murray, I don't see this team really competing this year. They will be in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes next draft for a reason. They have a fairly weak roster that won't win many games this year. Although Murray will most likely be back by now, and the Steelers have a tendency to play down to their opponents, this is a win for Pittsburgh. 8-4

Week 14: 8:15PM vs. New England

This game is very interesting on paper. The rumors are that the Patriots are in on the DeAndre Hopkins sweepstakes. If this comes to fruition, then this Patriots team could be quite the challenge. Even as they are, their defense has potential to be a top 5 unit this year. Especially with their utter robbery in the draft of Christian Gonzalez, he had no business going at 17 overall. With him and a solid pass rush, I see this being a tough game for Pittsburgh. But Pittsburgh prevails. 9-4

Week 15: Time TBD @ Indianapolis

Pittsburgh is 26-6 all-time and have won 7 in a row against the Colts. The Colts had quite the draft, where they basically set out to draft all of the freakiest athletes possible. Including the freakiest QB that has ever come into the draft. 

Anthony Richardson has things to work on, but athletically, all the tools are not only there, they are turned up to 11. With a solid roster, but not a lot of superstars yet, I think that the Steelers put another tick in the win column. 10-4

Week 16: 4:30PM vs. Cincinnati

This game will most likely be primetime because this is THE game of the year. This has huge playoff and division implications. At this point in the year, the Bengals and Steelers are most likely trading blows, and within a game or two of each other. The AFC North is now a two horse race and it comes down to this game. The previous game didn't go so well for the Steelers, but this one is different. The Steelers are up to the challenge this time. The defense is lockdown, the offense is electric, and the fans inside Acrisure can be heard for miles around. This is a bloodbath, close, overtime victory. 11-4

Week 17: 4:05PM @ Seattle

The Steelers are 10-10 against the Seahawks, with their most recent game being an overtime win in 2021. With all of the offensive weapons at the Seahawks disposal, and if Geno Smith can repeat his amazing year from 2022, this team will be a legitimate threat. The Seahawks secondary is also formidable, adding on to the fact that they have always boasted an incredibly hostile and loud stadium. The win streak ends and the AFC North crown is up for grabs again. 11-5

Week 18: Time TBD @ Baltimore

The Steelers will end the year on a high note. After the loss to the Seahawks last week and with playoffs looming, this will be one angry team coming into this rivalry match. These games are usually tight, but with the Ravens season being long done and Pittsburgh being fueled with rage, I think this one ends favorably for Pittsburgh. 12-5

Conclusion

The Steelers go 12-5 and book their ticket to the postseason. In terms of the AFC North, the crown will all depend on the Bengals. If they play as well or better than last year, they may just retain the crown, although it will be very close. I hope the Steelers take it, but realistically, I think the Bengals might have a better shot.   

 *All stats and numbers are from Footballdb.com, Statmuse.com, CBSNews.com, CBSSports.com and Steelers.com.