Steelers Vs. Rams Week 7 Pregame Report: Track Record Favors Pittsburgh, But How Can The Offense Survive?

The Pittsburgh Steelers return back to regular season action after their seasonal off week in the form of a trip to the west coast to visit the Los Angeles Rams. The Steelers enter Week 7 not only coming off a longer week to prepare, but also having a 3-2 record. Meanwhile, the Rams are carrying a 3-3 record and sit in third in the NFC West. Both teams have found ways to win tightly contested games, but where the Steelers have been losers in games by multiple scores, the largest point deficit the Rams have seen is only nine points. The contest will be the first time the teams have seen each other since 2019, and a win would be pivotal for both teams as we round the corner into the second third of the season.

Record History Between The Steelers And Rams

Since the series began in 1938 when the Rams were known as the Cleveland Rams, the Rams hold a 15-10-2 series advantage over the Steelers. However, the history between these two teams is relatively deep and has gone in waves of success for both teams. Not to mention, the Steelers have faced the Rams as the team of three different cities in that span.

Between 1938 and 1978, the Steelers only beat the Rams once. But when the two teams met in Super Bowl XIV, the tide seemed to have shifted in favor of Pittsburgh. After the Steelers defeated the Rams to a tune of 31-19 in January of 1980, the Steelers have a 9-3 record over the Rams. More recently, the Steelers are 6-2 since 1990 and are a perfect 4-0 under Head Coach Mike Tomlin. Further, the last time the Steelers lost to the Rams in Los Angeles was in 1993.

How To Watch The Steelers Vs. Rams

Courtesy of 506 Sports, below is the full coverage map for the later slate of games this week. FOX Sports will be carrying the game, with Adam Amin and Daryl Johnston calling the action. The game is set to kickoff at 4:05 eastern time. The local viewing ability is fairly scattered across the northeast, as only those fans in southern California will be able to catch the game on their local FOX stations. Of course, those subscribers of the NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV will be able to catch the game from wherever they are located.

Referee Assignment For This Week

Officiating the game this week will be Craig Wrolstad’s crew. So far this season, the crew has favored the home team in each of their five games they officiated. The home team is 4-1 both straight up and against the spread with the point total hitting the over in three of them.

They’re averaging just over 37 penalty yards per game against the home teams, and over 52 penalty yards per game against the visiting teams. The crew has shown they are a stingy group against defensive pass interference. They have called that penalty six times so far this year for a grand total of 137 yards. Specifically, they’ve called that penalty against the road team five of those six times. In addition, the crew also has close eyes on pre-snap penalties, as they’ve made eight false start penalties in 2023. That number is split evenly across the home and away teams in each of their games.

Steelers: What To Watch For

After the first five games of the season, it is hard to not get anxious watching the offense. Albeit there have been injuries peppered across the depth chart, but Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada still cannot seem to find a scheme that works for Kenny Pickett and company. Diontae Johnson returns to the lineup this week after spending time on Injured Reserve for the last four weeks, and his presence is very much a welcomed sight. In fact, that may play into what the Steelers will be looking to do on offense; pass the ball.

As much as it is important to establish the rushing attack, the Rams’ defensive front, led by Aaron Donald, has been relatively average this season. They’re averaging an allowance of just over 122 rushing yards-per-game which lands them in the middle of the pack relative to the entire league. However, their pass defense has shown to be an Achilles heel.

This season, the Rams’ pass defense is averaging an allowance of over 208 yards-per-game through the air. Although that number has them sitting squarely in the middle of the league, it comes with t a solver lining for the Steelers. Each of the Steelers’ three wins have come against teams who have a better pass defense than Los Angeles.

The Cleveland Browns lead the league with about 121 yards-per-game, with the Baltimore Ravens in second with 163 yards-per-game. Further, the Las Vegas Raiders are averaging just under 194 yards-per-game through the air. The Steelers have found ways to win against those defenses without Johnson, and now with him back in the fold, don’t be surprised if we see Pickett throw the ball over 40 times on Sunday.

Rams: What To Watch For

Similar to what we just detailed for the Steelers, the same can be said for the Rams; be ready to defend against the passing attack. The Rams have one of the best receiving duo’s in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua with the speedy Tutu Atwell able to stretch the defense deep down the field. The Rams placed running back Kyren Williams (ankle) on Injured Reserve leading into the game, and their backfield consists of a committee of back-up names as a result.

Needless to say, the Steelers’ secondary is going to have their hands full in what could be a track meet. Patrick Peterson has shown his age in each of his last starts, with Levi Wallace seeing his share of early-season struggles on the other side. However, rookie Joey Porter Jr. has lived up to the hype surrounding the 32nd-overall pick in 2023 and could see more action on Sunday.

Throughout training camp, the Steelers were experimenting with playing Peterson inside with Wallace and Porter Jr. on the perimeter, only to have gone away from that in the regular season. Coming out of the bye week, we may begin to see shades of that scheme this week against a receiving corps that can take the top off a defense in a single play.

Key Matchup to Watch

Ironically enough, the biggest matchup to watch is the Steelers’ secondary against the Rams’ high-flying offense and quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Steelers’ game plan will come with different layers to help cater to Stafford, Kupp, and Nacua, but Stafford has historically proved that the secondary has to do their job, regardless of who the defense has rushing him in the pocket; but that song is changing its tune in 2023.

In 2022, Stafford was impressive against the blitz. He posted a 71.9 completion percentage and a 141.8 quarterback rating when getting pressured in the pocket. However, the still-young 2023 season has been a different story. In 2023, Stafford has a 61.2 completion percentage against the blitz with an 83.6 quarterback rating, while throwing only six touchdowns and a glaring five interceptions. 

In addition, Stafford is tied for ninth in the league with taking 16 sacks on the season. If we put those numbers together, when pressured, Stafford has roughly 40 percent of something negative happening. Stafford’s only interceptions this season have come as a result of getting blitzed. In layman’s terms, blitz Stafford, and good things happen for the defense. But if the defense sits back in zone coverage, Stafford will pick them apart.

Current Odds

Leading into the game, the Steelers sit at 3-point underdogs to the Rams. This season, the Steelers are 3-2 against the spread, where the Rams are an impressive 5-1 against the spread. The point total is set at 44 points, so in the eyes of oddsmakers, the implied score prediction would be Rams 23, Steelers 20.

Final Score Prediction

There are clearly a lot of variables at play. The Rams have been effective at covering the spread and the assigned officiating crew tends to favor the home team. Meanwhile, the Steelers are relatively healthier now than they’ve been arguably been in a month and Tomlin hasn’t lost after the bye week since 2016. In addition, reports earlier in the week revealed the majority of the public has their money on the Rams to cover the 3-point spread. With that being said, and knowing the house always wins, the Steelers may surprise some people this week. Steelers, 18, Rams, 16.

What are you watching for this week? What do you think the final outcome will be? Let us know in the comments below!

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