The Pittsburgh Steelers named TJ Watt the team's MVP for the 2023 season, which was the fourth time that Watt was regarded in such a way. Watt should be collecting more hardware for his efforts throughout 2023, as he led the NFL in sacks for the third time and became the first player in history to accomplish such a feat. Despite Watt once again rewriting the record books, he is still being looked over for the league's Defensive Player Of The Year Award.
Associated Press
Steelers' TJ Watt leaves game with injured knee in poor weather conditions the NFL could have avoided.
Steelers' Watt Will Once Again Be Cheated Out Of The DPOY Award
Peter King, who is a writer for NBC Sports, recently discussed the DPOY race. He claims it will come down to five players: Watt, Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, Khalil Mack, and Micah Parsons. King went on to claim that if he had his way, he would give the award to Garrett with Watt finishing in third behind Parsons. King explained his use of advanced stats from Pro Football Focus and Next Gen Stats, which led to him choosing Garrett as his DPOY over Watt.
"I picked Garrett. In order, my top five were Garrett, Parsons, Watt, Crosby and Mack. Garrett was high in both PFF grade and Next Gen pass-rush metrics, and his team was the number one defense in football. More than that, I kept thinking of one play—amazingly, not a pass-rush or strip-sack or some great spin move."
The play King was gushing over was a blocked field goal by Garrett against the Indianapolis Colts. Garrett leaped over the line of scrimmage to block the kick. It was impressive, but Watt has also proven to be a game wrecker that can impact games in other ways aside from rushing the passer. Watt has played the pass well his entire career, as he has recorded seven interceptions and 45 passes defensed. More specifically, in 2023, Watt had eight passes defensed and one interception, while Garrett had no interceptions and just three passes defensed. Both are capable of making plays, Watt just does it more often.
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Steelers' TJ Watt hopes to take down Myles Garrett (95) in the 2023 Defensive Player Of The Year race.
King's entire philosophy for voting for Garrett comes from using advanced statistics like pass rush win-rate and pressure rate, and Garrett had better numbers than Watt in both of those categories. However, since Garrett is getting more pressure and winning a higher percentage of his pass rushes, one would think he should be recording more sacks. King went on to explain how Watt would win this award in past years, but now advanced statistics change the thought process of voters.
"This year, Watt became the first player to win the NFL sacks a third time with 19.0 sacks. That’s 4.5 more than Crosby and five more than Garrett and Parsons. That matters, getting home more than anyone else. It matters a lot. Per Next Gen Stats, though, Watt had a pressure rate of 13.7 percent per rush—good, but down the list from the best edge-rushers. Watt would have won it in bygone years because of his sack numbers, and his terrific overall play could win it this year when the awards are announced in Las Vegas on Feb. 8."
If many of the other voters follow in the shoes of King, and strictly use advanced statistics to influence their voting, Watt has no chance to win the award. Watt was the best defensive player in the league in 2023, as he consistently found himself in the backfield and made plenty of game-changing plays. But, advanced statistics say Watt wasn't good enough. According to King, players that score better with the computers, yet put up less meaningful stats, deserve the recognition as the best defensive player in the NFL.
Don Wright / AP
Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker TJ Watt is one of the best defensive forces in the NFL, but he needs support from the rest of the team if they are to succeed.
This isn't the first sign that Watt will be missing out on being recognized as the best defensive player in 2023. PFF released their All-Pro teams for the season, and Watt wasn't named on either the First or Second Team. He was named an AP First Team All-Pro, as he and Garrett each earned that honor as the two edge rushers. However, Garrett received 129 total votes to be an All-Pro, and Watt received just 112. Garrett also received 40 votes to be on the First Team, and Watt received only 32.
This is possibly a sign of what is to come. Garrett will likely win the award because he had a better PFF grade, or because he had a better pass-rush win rate, yet only recorded 14.5 sacks. It no longer matters whether or not you finish plays, all that matters is if you had a good PFF grade. Welcome to the new era of evaluating football players.
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