The Steelers return home to play the Bills at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday afternoon, and Pittsburgh enters the game as a 3.5-point home underdog to Buffalo. From a betting perspective, it’s hard to know exactly how to value this Steelers team; they’re definitely capable of beating a Bills team that’s lost to the Texans, Dolphins and Falcons this year. But it’s been a few weeks since we’ve seen the Steelers click on both sides of the ball.
Steelers.com
Steelers' DK Metcalf runs after the catch on a pass against the Green Bay Packers
It’s also been a few weeks since we’ve delivered betting tips that actually hit, so this week, let’s have a little bit of fun and build a high-value parlay that could earn a big return on a nominal wager. You’ll be able to bet on this parlay on most sports betting apps, and you can even find DFS apps and pick’em sites to combine these picks.
To start assembling this parlay, we need to ask ourselves one question: Will Josh Allen throw an interception on Sunday? If he does, it could determine how a lot of the game plays out. Allow us to explain.
Allen enters this game with nine interceptions on the year. After beginning the season without throwing a pick for the first three games, all nine of Allen’s interceptions have come in the subsequent eight games. Most sportsbooks favor Allen to throw an INT on Sunday, with his odds to throw at least one pick sitting between -115 and -135.
In four games against the Steelers in his career, Allen has thrown an interception in three of them. And for a Steelers team who’s returning home to Pittsburgh, it’s worth noting that eight of the team’s nine interceptions this season have come at home. Consider also that opposing QBs are averaging an NFL-high 40.6 pass attempts per game against Pittsburgh’s defense this year, per EV Analytics. In five games in which Allen has thrown 30 or more passes this year, he’s thrown an interception in four of them, including the last three Bills games.
While you might expect a team who throws interceptions to lose games, the stats behind Buffalo’s performance as a team in games in which Allen throws an interception are fascinating.
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Steelers T.J. Watt (#90) knocks the ball away from Bills Josh Allen (#17) in 2021.
The Bills have lost four games this season, and Allen threw an interception in all four losses — Buffalo is 2-4 this season when Allen throws a pick. And despite being 5-0 when he doesn’t throw an INT this year, the point totals have largely remained consistent — the number of total points per game in Bills games is 54.2 when Allen doesn’t throw an INT, and 51.2 when he does.
That tells us that combining an over on total points and Allen to throw an interception might be a play.
But here’s the most important element. The Steelers are 4-1 when they intercept a pass this season. We’ve already told you Buffalo is 2-4 when they throw a pick, and that almost all of Pittsburgh’s interceptions this season have come at home, where they’re playing on Sunday.
We’re not here to tell you to bet on the Steelers to win this game. But it all comes down to this: If Josh Allen throws an interception on Sunday, it dramatically increases the Steelers’ odds of keeping the game close, and it does so without reducing the expected amount of points scored.
If Allen Throws an INT, Expect This Game to Stay Close
Allen has a slightly greater than 50% chance of throwing a pick, and with OTs Dion Dawkins (concussion) and Spencer Brown (shoulder) potentially sidelined, a lack of protection certainly doesn’t help him.
We put together this parlay on Hard Rock Bet, and the sportsbook gave us +500 odds for all three to hit.
Josh Allen Over 0.5 INTs
Steelers +3.5
Over 46.5 Total Points
Hard Rock Bet has Allen’s odds to throw an interception at -115 on its own. But if you think it’ll happen, we think it’s worth betting on the Steelers to keep it close, and the total points to remain high. A bet of just $5 could return you $25 if all three legs are winners.
