Steelers Made Big Mistake With TJ Watt After New Stat Proves His Prime Has Expired

The Pittsburgh Steelers decided to take care of their superstar pass rusher TJ Watt ahead of the 2025 NFL season. Watt was rewarded with a three-year $123 million contract extension, which includes $108 million fully guaranteed at signing. The deal, reached in July 2025, made him the highest paid non-quarterback in NFL history in terms of annual average value at the time. For years Watt had been arguably the best defensive player in football, the engine of Pittsburgh’s identity and the heartbeat of their defense. However, as the Steelers collapsed late in the 2024 season, questions quietly surfaced. Many assumed Watt was simply battling through injuries and that his dip in explosiveness was temporary.

As the offseason unfolded, the conversation around Watt shifted from mild concern to something far more worrying. While fans pointed to injuries and the Steelers’ overall dysfunction, some analysts began to wonder whether age, workload and wear were beginning to take a toll. Watt, now deep into his career and having carried the defense for nearly a decade, suddenly did not look like the same game wrecker who once terrorized offensive lines every Sunday. The hope inside Pittsburgh was that with a full offseason of recovery, rest and renewed focus under Mike Tomlin, Watt would return to form in 2025.

A new stat highlighted by Ben Solak in his article for ESPN paints a much darker picture. According to Solak, Watt showed measurable declines in key pass rushing metrics late in the 2024 season, numbers that go beyond simple injuries and point toward a potential long-term regression. The data suggests Watt was not just slowed, he was fundamentally less effective in the moments when Pittsburgh needed him most. For a franchise that just invested record-setting money into its star defender, this revelation raises a serious question heading into 2025 and beyond: did the Steelers pay for the version of Watt that no longer exists?

"It is obnoxious to say that we all saw this coming, but generally speaking, we did," Solak said. "Watt's explosiveness tailed off through the 2024 season before his injury and has dropped again this year. His get-off was 0.75 seconds in 2022, then 0.79 in 2023, 0.83 in 2024 and now 0.87 in 2025. That full tenth of a second matters for a speed rusher such as Watt, who has delivered a pressure rate below 10% in each of the past two seasons."

As Solak highlighted, Watt’s get-off time has decreased each passing year, and while it may not seem like much, it could explain why Watt has just seven sacks in the 2025 season compared to Cleveland Browns superstar pass rusher Myles Garrett’s 19. 

Solak continued to dive in.

"With a deep and young group of edge rushers behind him, the Steelers were well-positioned to get out a year early rather than a year late," Solak said. "But moving on from Watt didn't fit their timeline, so he was extended at a $41 million annually -- greater than the average annual value of Myles Garrett's contract. Garrett has 19 sacks this season; Watt has seven."

Steelers' TJ Watt Making The Debate Easy In 2025

There has been a big debate in past seasons between the two pass rushers, but there is no debate this year. Garrett is the better player, and it is not particularly close at this point. Watt is now 31 years old, and the Steelers just gave him a massive contract. 

They had a chance to move on early, but instead they kept him, and now they may pay the price according to Solak.

After hearing the quotes from ESPN’s Ben Solak, what do you think? Did the Steelers make a massive mistake paying TJ Watt, and do you believe his prime is behind him? Let us know in the comments below! Feel free to share your Steelers takes with me on X @anthonyghalkias and give me a follow. I’ll respond!

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