The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Detroit on Sunday to take on the Lions as seven-point underdogs. Despite having the same record as Detroit, it’s clear that oddsmakers don’t see things turning the Steelers’ way on the road. That creates an opportunity for us to find some value backing Steelers prop bets.
Stacy Revere / TNS
Lions QB Jared Goff celebrates a touchdown.
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Here are our favorite prop bets heading into Sunday’s Steelers-Lions matchup.
Kenneth Gainwell to Record 25+ Receiving Yards (-125 on Hard Rock Bet)
If you ask Steelers fans who their MVP this season is, you’ll hear Kenneth Gainwell’s name a lot. “Kenny G” has emerged not only as a capable runner who can spell Jaylen Warren as needed; he’s also been a threat as a receiver out of the backfield, serving especially as a skilled third-down back.
That’s why it’s a bit surprising to see sportsbooks list him with near-even odds to reach 25+ receiving yards against the Lions on Sunday. Gainwell has tallied 25+ receiving yards five games in a row and six of his last seven games, posting consistent receiving numbers even while his rushing contributions have fluctuated.
Gainwell tied his season high for receptions with seven in the Steelers win on Monday night, and anyone who watches this team on a weekly basis knows Arthur Smith has no intention of reducing Kenny’s role. We’ve got a ton of confidence in Gainwell hitting 25+ receiving yards on Sunday.
Connor Heyward Anytime TD (+700 on FanDuel)
This is a bit of a long-shot bet that we’d advise any takers to use caution on and bet a small amount. But at +700 odds, the return on Connor Heyward’s Anytime Touchdown market would be outstanding. Heyward isn’t even listed on some sportsbooks as an Anytime TD option, and he’s listed as low as +550 on Bet365 — nearly 22% worse odds than what FanDuel is offering.
Why? Apparently, sportsbooks view Heyward’s touchdown prospects more in his role as a tight end, a role in which he does actually have a TD this season. But for a player with two receptions total this year, the play here is obvious: If the Steelers get the ball to the opposing one-yard line, they’re going to run “Spartan,” their version of the Eagles’ Tush Push.
With the success of Pittsburgh’s Spartan play in recent weeks, we see Heyward as being one of the more likely Steelers to find paydirt on Sunday, so a modest wager at +700 odds seems like a fair long-shot bet.
Matt Freed / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Steelers running back Kenneth Gainwell and tight end Connor Heyward celebrate in Steelers 28-15 win on Monday Night Football against Miami Dolphins
First Half: Steelers +4.5 (-120 on Hard Rock Bet)
The Steelers have been a good first-half team this year. The second half? Well, that’s not so relevant here. We’re looking for the Steelers to cover a +4.5-point spread in the first half.
The Steelers have been in the lead at halftime in 11 of their 14 games this season, outperforming their opponents in the first half even when they went on to lose. They trailed the Bengals at halftime by seven in their Week 7 loss and were behind the Chargers by nine in a brutal Week 10 loss. Other than those two games, the Steelers would have covered a +4.5-point halftime spread every week.
Many sportsbooks will allow you to choose your own halftime spread within reason, and teasing to +3.5 will get you closer to plus-money; however, Hard Rock Bet’s -120 juice on a +4.5 halftime spread looks like the best value to us.
Parlay Picks to Create More Betting Value
If you’re looking for some value for your bets on Sunday, you can pair Gainwell’s 25+ receiving yards and the Steelers +4.5 first-half spread for +188 odds on FanDuel. If you’re feeling lucky, you can add in a Heyward anytime TD to get +1973 odds, but keep in mind that a Heyward TD is a bit of a longshot. But for those interested, a $5 parlay bet would return nearly $100 if all three legs hit.
