As if the headline didn't tell you enough about these ratings using Next Gen Stats. Pittsburgh Steelers All-Pro and reigning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt came in behind Cincinnati Bengals Trey Hendrickson in the latest 'Next Gen' pass rush disruptor ratings released yesterday by NFL.com.
TJ Watt tied the record for most sacks in an NFL season in 2021
According to the story 'disruptors are defined not just by sacks but plays in which they affect an opposing quarterback. Next Gen Stats defines a hurry as an instance in which a defender gets within 1.5 yards of a quarterback at any moment between the snap and the release of a pass or a sack, and a pressure is when a defender is within 2 yards of the quarterback at the time he's releasing a pass or within 1.5 yards of the QB at any point during the play.'
Usually the conversation is whether Watt is better than Aaron Donald. On this list Donald is way back at #8. One spot ahead of former Steelers lineman Javon Hargrave who ranks #9. The other player that's constantly debated about with Watt is Cleveland's Myles Garrett. Garrett comes in at #6 on the list. Let's take a look at what they have to say about Watt.
T.J. WattPittsburgh Steelers · OLB
QBP: 60
QBP rate: 16.3%
Hurries: 43
Sacks: 22.5
TO-QBP: 3
Watt tied the all-time single-season sack record in 2021. He was voted Defensive Player of the Year. And he did it despite missing two full games and most of a third.
Watt posted the highest single-season sack rate (6.1%) of the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Also, he owns the highest sack rate (3.7%) over the duration of the NGS era (min. 1,500 pass-rush snaps). He's more efficient at getting home than any rusher in the history of Next Gen Stats. However, he’s second on this list because a player from a division rival happened to post the fourth-highest QB pressure rate in a single season in NGS history and force five turnovers via pressure in 2021.
This is what they said about Hendrickson.
Trey HendricksonTrey Hendrickson
Cincinnati Bengals · DE
QBP: 79
QBP rate: 19.4%
Hurries: 45
Sacks: 14
TO-QBP: 5
Some in the football world likely saw Hendrickson's breakout 2020 campaign as a fluke, and then raised both eyebrows at the Bengals when they signed him to a four-year, $60 million deal last offseason. In hindsight, that deal looks like a bargain.
Hendrickson followed up his 13.5-sack performance -- which helped him earn the No. 3 spot on this list a year ago -- by registering 79 pressures and 14 sacks. His pressure rate (19.4%) is fourth-best in the NGS era (since 2016). What truly separated Hendrickson from the pack, though, was his ability to cause takeaways. Hendrickson forced five turnovers via pressure, tying with Markus Golden, Randy Gregory, Chandler Jones and Odafe Oweh for the league lead. Only one player from that group had a strong enough body of work to land on this list, and Hendrickson's was good enough to put him at the top of it.
So, they're giving Hendrickson the nod because he was the direct result of 5 turnovers because of his pressures. Watt had 3 of those and finished with 22.5 sacks compared to Hendrickson's 14. Watt also was the Defensive Player of the Year. The stat that is pushing Hendrickson over the top is one that he tied 4 other players with for the league lead and none of the other players even made this list.
There is zero chance that Hendrickson is a better pass rusher than Watt. Sometimes stats just don't tell the exact story. And this writer's opinion may be a little clouded.
