The Pittsburgh Steelers make their way to Indiana to take on the Indianapolis Colts in their Week 12 action. Last week, they dropped their seventh game of the season to the Cincinnati Bengals and sit in the basement of the AFC North division at 3-7. To say that head coach Mike Tomlin is in the midst of his toughest season in his tenure would be an understatement.
Meanwhile, the Colts made a little noise of their own earlier this month. After the firing of former head coach Frank Reich, Jeff Saturday was named interim head coach and has led the team to a pair of impressive performances. Each team is looking to get back to winning football and has all, if any, of their playoff hopes riding on this game.
Steelers' T.J. Watt (#90) smiles as he gets ready for Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts. | Credit: Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers
Let’s take a look at some things we can look forward to when the Steelers take on the Colts.
MATCHUPS AT A GLANCE
Offense: Although they lost, last week against the Bengals was the best offensive games for the Steelers of the season. Kenny Pickett threw for over 250 yards for the third time this season with a touchdown and no interceptions. Najee Harris had another above-average performance and George Pickens was big in the passing game, even though he’d get ejected in the waning moments of the game. However, Diontae Johnson was held to only 4 receptions for 21 yards and was vocal this week about getting more involved. Therefore, there is a pair of matchups to watch this week involving a pair of Steelers’ pass catchers; the first being Johnson versus Stephon Gilmore.
Gilmore was awarded the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2019, but injuries have forced him to become relatively mediocre since. He’s currently ranking around the middle third of the majority of key areas. It will take a scheme, something offensive coordinator Matt Canada seems to be afraid of, to get Johnson the ball. But the numbers show the way how, and when, to get that done. In the first quarter alone, Gilmore allows a 109.7 quarterback rating (QBR) to opposing teams, which is his highest in the game.
Looking towards the fourth quarter, he’s allowed 163 yards, which is the most compared to the rest of the game. In addition, as ironic as this sounds, Gilmore at home isn’t impressive. He’s allowed a 98.9 QBR at home with a 63.6 completion percentage. The formula is simple; get the ball to Johnson against Gilmore early and often and good things will happen.
Steelers' Pat Freiermuth (#88) gets ready to take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
The other matchup to watch is Pat Freiermuth versus Rodney McLeod and Kenny Moore. Freiermuth leads the team in receiving yards with 482 yards and has a tough matchup against McLeod or Moore, depending on where he lines up. So far this season, Freiermuth has feasted from the left slot position, which is where Moore typically plays. In that spot, Freiermuth has 147 yards on 11 receptions with a touchdown. Moore is arguably one of the best slot corners in the league and is having another spectacular season.
However, Freiermuth only lines up there for about 13 percent of his snaps. The majority of the time, Freiermuth lines up tight on the right side, which is where he may see more of McLeod than Moore. Pickett and Freiermuth have a strong connection and the second-year tight end is seeing a lot of passes come his way as a result. The Colts have allowed an average of 48 yards per game to opposing tight ends with 5 touchdowns on the season. There is a good chance Freiermuth touches pay dirt on Monday night.
Defense: If you’re like me, the first thing you think of when talking about the Colts’ offense is Jonathan Taylor and their physical run game. They have built a reputation of an effective run game behind a powerful offensive line led by a veteran quarterback on the down slope of his career. This is exactly what they’re bringing into Monday night and that is the first thing to stop on defense; the run game. T.J. Watt especially knows Taylor and the run game is priority number one and key to getting off the field:
"He's (Taylor) able to make the offense go," he said. "And that's talking about the run game, pass game. He's done some great things. Just a really good downhill back who can get up to speed quickly. I've watched a lot of him in college. He's very talented.” Watt also added, "It's going to be a challenge for us. I think we just have to play a very technical, sound football game. It's just going to take every man to do their job and not try to be something they are not."
Steelers' T.J. Watt (#90) gets ready for for the Indianapolis Colts in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers
It is clear the matchup to watch is the Steelers’ now sixth-ranked rush defense versus Taylor. The run defense started slow this season after an historically-awful 2021 campaign, but they haven’t allowed a 100-rusher since the third week of the season (Nick Chubb, 113 yards). Meanwhile, Taylor has been having a decent season, but has been limited in the past few weeks after aggravating his ankle earlier in November.
But with that said, there is a quiet trend amongst the Colts’ season so far. In the games where Taylor eclipses the century mark on the ground, the Colts have won (versus the Las Vegas Raiders) and tied (versus the Houston Texans).
In each of their 6 losses, the most yards Taylor posted was 84 rushing yards last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. With such a run-heavy offensive attack, the defensive formula is simple and Watt hit the nail on the head in revealing it; if they stop Taylor, there is a good chance the Steelers win the game.
PREDICTION
As I said earlier, this is a potential season-determining game for both teams. It is either win this game and gain some momentum heading into December or lose, and begin to focus on winter vacation plans. This game has the makings for a low scoring affair, but I think the visitors find a way to pull this one out in the end. Prediction, Steelers 24, Colts 23.
Steelers' head coach Mike Tomlin gets his team ready for a big matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. | Credit: Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers
FINAL THOUGHTS
It is no secret, but is still good to note, the Steelers’ impressive record on Monday Night Football. Overall, they carry a 54-31-1 record into Monday night and a 26-6 all-time record against the Colts to add on top of that. The last time these teams met in Indianapolis on Monday night was in 2005, where the Steelers would eventually win their fifth franchise Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Colts are 25-19 on Monday nights and haven’t won a home Monday night game since 2010 (they’re 0-2 at home and 0-3 overall since).
The Steelers are going to need every ounce of positive trends and Monday night magic to leave Indianapolis with a win.
What are you watching for on Monday night? What do you think the final outcome will be? Let us know in the comments below!
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