Another week, another must-win game for the Pittsburgh Steelers. After a triumphant victory over the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Eve, they head south to Inner Harbor, Baltimore to take on the Baltimore Ravens. This will be the second time in 20 days these teams will meet and it comes at a pivotal point in the season. The Ravens have already secured their spot in the playoffs and are just playing for seed position. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ meager playoff hopes are at stake on Sunday. A win extends those hopes a bit longer. But a loss would end those hopes and hand head coach Mike Tomlin his first losing season of his tenure in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers' defense lines up against the Baltimore Ravens in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
Let’s take a look at some things we can look forward to when the Steelers take on the Ravens.
MATCHUPS AT A GLANCE
Offense: In their last matchup, Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game in the first quarter at the hands of Roquan Smith. After a week of talking about Pickett versus the Baltimore blitz, those conversations fizzled out as we had to watch Mitch Trubisky throw a hat trick of interceptions. Those interceptions would ultimately decide their fate in the form of a 16-14 loss. But with Pickett back this week and coming off a solid performance, there is a pair of schematic matchups he’ll look to take full advantage of; those being the Baltimore zone defense and the red zone.
The Baltimore defense has changed in 2022 under new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. As a part of that, they’ve transformed from a blitz-first scheme to a more zone-centric squad. To be a bit more exact, they play zone coverage about 75 percent of the time. It was that zone coverage that left Trubisky with a 57.8 quarterback rating (QBR) in their last game. Ironically enough, Pickett’s track record against zone coverage isn’t much better. He holds a 63.3 QBR against zone coverage, yet also carries a 71.6 completion percentage. The receiving duo of Diontae Johnson and George Pickens will be critical in supporting Pickett’s efforts, but considering those two combined for 160 yards in their last matchup, the opportunities will be there.
Steelers' Kenny Pickett (#8) lines up against the Baltimore Ravens in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
Earlier this week, Pickett proclaimed his focus this week on the offense’s execution in the red zone. As simple as that sounds, there are a few trends that come into play where something will have to give. First, the Steelers have been fairly efficient in the red zone in their last three games. They’ve scored a touchdown 75 percent of the time in that span and was a perfect 100 percent last week. However, on the road, they’ve only scored a touchdown in the red zone 47.83 percent of the time, which is ranked 21st in the league.
On the other side, Baltimore stands up big in the red zone on the road by only allowing a 45.16 scoring percentage, which is second-best in the entire NFL. That is exactly what the offense saw on December 11th. But when playing at home, that number bumps to 52.63 percent, which is ranked twelfth in the league. The offense’s red zone efficiency will be a major factor in this week’s matchup.
Defense: If you’re like me, you still have nightmares of J.K. Dobbins running through the Pittsburgh defense. Lamar Jackson missed the last game, and is going to miss this game, leading to Tyler Huntley getting the start again under center. That led to Dobbins and Gus Edwards taking over the game and gashing the Pittsburgh defense in the form of 186 yards on the ground on 28 carries with a touchdown. It seemed as though everyone in the stadium knew they were going to run the ball each play, but the defense simply couldn’t stop them. The Ravens are going to take full advantage of that same formula this week, and this is the biggest matchup on the defensive side of the ball. That being Dobbins, Edwards, and the Baltimore rush attack against the Pittsburgh front seven.
Steelers' Cam Heyward (#97) wraps up the Baltimore Ravens' J.K. Dobbins (#27) in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
Since they met last, the Steelers’ rush defense has seemingly taken offense to what had happened earlier in the month and has improved in that regard. They held the Carolina Panthers, who have made an imposing reputation for themselves as being one of the best rushing offenses in the league, to just 21 yards on the ground. Last week against the Raiders and another impressive runner in Josh Jacobs, they held him to only 44 yards on the ground. But with that said, Dobbins and company haven’t shown any signs of slowing down.
In the last two weeks, Dobbins has put up 184 on the ground, while Edwards has tallied 154. However, the Baltimore offense has managed to only score 20 points in that span with 241 passing yards. If you do the math, that comes to over 58 percent of the Ravens’ offense that flows through Dobbins and Edwards. The largest focus of Cam Heyward, T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and the rest of the defense this week certainly revolve around those numbers. We should watch for them to take advantage of this redemption opportunity and put the game on Huntley’s second-string shoulders.
Steelers' T.J. Watt (#90) lines up against the Baltimore Ravens' Gus Edwards (#35) in Pittsburgh, PA. | Credit: Jordan Schofield/SteelerNation (JSKO_PHOTO Twitter)
PREDICTION
Could we see history on Sunday night in Tomlin’s first losing season? Are the Steelers really going to effectively end their season in prime time on national television? Pittsburgh hasn’t lost in Baltimore in three years, and I think they find a way to head into the final week of the season with back-to-back wins. Prediction, Steelers 23, Ravens 18.
FINAL THOUGHTS
As I alluded to earlier, as each week passes and we get closer to Week 18, Tomlin’s streak of 15 consecutive seasons of no losing records looms larger and larger. He is one loss away from ending that and conversations among fans continue to swirl about his validity of being a solid NFL coach. No matter what side of that argument you fall on, there is another impressive Tomlin fact that came into fruition last week. Tomlin’s 157 wins in the regular season in his first 250 games is the most amongst the NFL since the merger in 1970.
What are you watching for on Sunday night? What do you think the final outcome will be? Let us know in the comments below!
#SteelerNation
