All offseason the Pittsburgh Steelers have been getting negative feedback from all of the mainstream media. Whether it's ESPN, PFF, or the latest talking head on NFL Network. Many talking about how the Steelers won't finish above .500 for the first time under Mike Tomlin, about how terrible of an offseason they've had, or that Kenny Pickett is the product of a bad quarterback class. We've heard it all.
Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback, Kenny Pickett (#8) participates in Organized Team Activities (OTAs) Thursday June 2, 2022 at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex. (Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers)
Now ESPN is doubling down on their efforts to trash Pittsburgh. This morning on ESPN+ Seth Walder released a story projecting who will pick in the top 10 of the 2023 NFL Draft.
"Even so, we projected how the draft order might play out in those first 10 picks using our ESPN Football Power Index, which gives each team's expected draft slot. An analytics writer pulls back the curtain on the numbers to explain why each team is projected to have an early selection, while our NFL Nation reporters dive in on how each of the teams can outperform these expectations and avoid a disappointing season."
According to their Power Index the Steelers rank near the bottom. This is how they describe their Power Index its a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
So they're basing these rankings on simulations. What could go wrong? Anyway this is what they had to say in regards to the Steelers.
6. Pittsburgh SteelersChance at No. 1 pick: 6.5%
Chance at top 10: 53.5%
Why they are here: Our FPI model considers the T.J. Watt-led Steelers defense to be the fifth best in the league, but a good defense can take you only so far. The game swings on offense, and none of the options at quarterback -- Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett or Mason Rudolph -- are likely to be a high performer in 2022. ESPN's FPI considers the first two to be the better choices and roughly equivalent in the short term. -- Walder
How they outperform this projection: Coach Mike Tomlin doesn't do losing seasons. In 15 seasons as the Steelers' head coach, Tomlin has never had one. Remember when Ben Roethlisberger went down for the year, and he started Rudolph and Devlin Hodges under center? Yeah, he didn't lose then, either. It won't be a pretty season in Pittsburgh by any means, but don't count a Tomlin-led squad out -- especially when he has the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and an up-and-coming star in running back Najee Harris on his roster. -- Brooke Pryor
ESPN Steelers reporter Brooke Pryor says not to count out a Tomlin-led squad, but in the same sentence says it's going to be ugly. Maybe you could take it as they're going to win ugly, but it doesn't seem like that's exactly what she means.
Interesting in it's own right is that Pittsburgh has a 6.5% chance to have the number 1 overall selection. That should tell you all you need to know about these projections.
