When the Pittsburgh Steelers selected Kenny Pickett in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Art Rooney II, Mike Tomlin, and Kevin Colbert sent a clear message about how important the quarterback position is. The Steelers went over two decades without drafting a quarterback in the first round following the retirement of Terry Bradshaw until selecting Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, and were haunted by the 1983 gaffe of not selecting Dan Marino.
While the Steelers commitment to a quarterback in the first round is testament to understanding the significance of the position, particularly in the current NFL landscape, it's also not an indicator of how successful he will be. However, using recent draft history and analytics, we can get project the chances Pickett will win a Super Bowl with the Steelers and even be a Hall of Famer.
Steelers NFL Draft Prospect QB Kenny Pickett from Pitt | Photo via Twitter.com/JSKO_PHOTO
Since the 2000 NFL Draft, 67 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round or top 32 picks, with 47 being selected in the top 15. Of the remaining 19 quarterbacks that were taken in that later half of the first round, how many have been successful? Let’s examine those 19 quarterbacks to potentially get a glimpse of what we can expect.
A – Hall of Fame 1st Ballot (11%)
- Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers (2005, 25th overall): 4x MVP, 10x Pro Bowler, Super Bowl XLV MVP. Rodgers' infamous slide and long day waiting in the green room was embarrassing, but he got the last laugh with 4 MVPs, a painful Super Bowl XLV win against the Steelers, and a Hall of Fame career.
- Drew Brees – San Diego Chargers (2001, 32nd overall*): 13x Pro Bowler, Super Bowl XLIV MVP. Brees technically went in the 2nd round a year before the league expanded to 32 teams.* He slid because of his height and struggled early, but emerged as a star in 2004 and led the New Orleans Saints to a Super Bowl XLIV win and a Hall of Fame career.
Chances Kenny Pickett will be Grade A: It would be unfair to compare the #1 overall pick to the career that these two all time greats have accomplished, but it is possible.
B – Solid with Great Moments (16%)
- Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens (2008, 18th overall): Super Bowl XLVII MVP. Flacco had a lot of doubters but kept the Ravens winning until that incredible 2012 playoff run to win Super Bowl XLVII, and it's been steep downhill ever since.
- Chad Pennington – New York Jets (2000, 18th overall): 2x Comeback Player of the Year. The Steelers had eyes on Pennington, a weak arm saw him drop, but he was incredibly accurate. Injuries ended a promising career too soon.
- Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens (2018, 32nd overall): 1x MVP, 2x Pro Bowler. Jackson has achieved a lot of success, but not in the playoffs. There are questions about him long-term due to the heavy reliance on his running, and running quarterbacks don't traditionally have a long shelf life in the NFL.
Chances Kenny Pickett will be Grade B: This is a very attainable level for Pickett, as each of these quarterbacks experienced high moments despite flaws in their game. And if Pickett is able to guide the Steelers to a Super Bowl, that is a win all of Steeler Nation will take.
C – There was that one season (21%)
- Rex Grossman – Chicago Bears (2003, 22nd overall): Grossman led the Bears to Super Bowl XLI, amazing accomplishment for how bad he was.
- Teddy Bridgewater – Minnesota Vikings (2014, 32nd overall): Look up journeyman QB and there is a picture of Bridgewater.
- Josh Freeman – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2009, 17th overall): Freeman looked like he might emerge as a star QB following a stellar 2010 campaign, but it was too much work, so no.
- Tim Tebow – Denver Broncos (2010, 25th overall): Tebow’s one shining moment was the bane of every Steeler fans existence as he punched above his weight to win in the 2011 playoffs.
Chances Kenny Pickett will be Grade C: Most of these guys dealt with injuries that limited them in their careers, but didn't start off with much of a margin of error to begin with. It's safe to say that even if Pickett were to get the Steelers to a Super Bowl and they lost like Grossman, he would be remembered for what he didn't do.
D - Incomplete (5%)
- Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers (2020, 26th overall): In a no-win situation with Rodgers still around, as Love isn't getting on the field anytime soon.
Chances Kenny Pickett will be Grade D: What are the odds that Mitch Trubisky emerges as an elite starter? If Pickett doesn't play because Trubisky turned into a franchise quarterback, Steeler Nation would be okay with that.
F – Complete and Total Bust (47%)
- Kyle Boller – Baltimore Ravens (2003, 19th overall): Nice to see the Ravens miss this badly in the draft for a change.
- Patrick Ramsey – Washington Commanders (2002, 32nd overall): Thankfully Washington still had hopes for him when they didn’t take Roethlisberger in 2004.
- Jason Campbell – Washington Commanders (2005, 25th overall): If Rodgers would have just lasted one more pick, he would have rotted away in Washington.
- J.P. Losman – Buffalo Bills (2004, 22nd overall): Tom Donahoe tried to move up so he could pick Roethlisberger ahead of the Steelers. Instead he traded for the Todd Blackledge of the 2004 QB NFL Draft class and missed out on the chance to take Rodgers the following season.
- E.J. Manuel – Buffalo Bills (2013, 16th overall): Many have said the 2013 QB Draft class is the worst ever. Hopefully that remains the same in the future.
- Brady Quinn – Cleveland Browns (2007, 22nd overall): The Browns were thought to be considering taking Quinn as high as with the #3 overall pick. They thought they got a steal when they traded back into the first to get him. They were wrong.
- Brandon Weedon – Cleveland Browns (2012, 22nd overall): Who drafts a 29-year-old rookie QB? The Browns clearly aren't good at this.
- Johnny Manziel – Cleveland Browns (2014, 22nd overall): A homeless guy advised Browns owner Jimmy Haslam to take Manziel. Good call.
- Paxton Lynch – Denver Broncos (2016, 26th overall): Didn’t Lynch get cut from USFL?
Chances Kenny Pickett will be Grade F: With the exception of Boller and the Ravens, the failure rate is overwhelmingly led by the Browns, Bills, Commanders and Broncos. That can't be a coincidence. By the nature of the Steelers franchise, Pickett will not be this level of bust, we hope.
Where do you think Pickett will land on this list in five years? Leave a comment below.
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