It has been well described that the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2022 season was a tale of contrasting periods. We were able to see what would happen with Mitch Trubisky under center compared to Kenny Pickett. We saw the complete turnaround in performance before and after the bye week in Week 9. We were also able to see the $112 million value T.J. Watt brings onto the field… and what happens when he is on the sidelines.
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Steelers' TJ Watt (#90) celebrates a turnover against the Miami Dolphins in Pittsburgh, PA in 2019.
In any memorable game, there is always one defensive play that could be considered the turning point in determining the final result. Head Coach Mike Tomlin has coined the term “splash plays” to describe those instances. So much so, the defense makes it a point of emphasis in practice and embeds them into each week’s game plan. This may seem like relatively common sense, but the science behind it can be difficult to translate. So, what does the science say?
Tomlin preaches the urgent need for splash plays on all three phases of the game. In his illustrious 16-year head coaching career, Tomlin has been avid in proclaiming the “don’t blink” mentality and not to flinch in crucial moments. In the last three seasons, the Steelers are 22-9 in one-score games, most recently being 7-5 in the 2022 season. In the middle of their struggles in the fall, Tomlin was vocal about what needs to happen to turn the ship around:
“It’s just the splash,” he said. “We’re working to develop cohesion and the type of splash good units make. Last week, we didn’t make enough splash plays. Not only on offense, but on defense and special teams. When you play one-possession games like we’ve been in, you need those splash plays, particularly in the weighty moments.”
The Steelers saw their fair share of splash plays in 2022, both good and bad. Minkah Fitzpatrick seemed to take the first game of the season over against the Cincinnati Bengals; but then we saw tough losses to the Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, New England Patriots, and Miami Dolphins at the hand of opposing splash plays. Thinking back to the 2022 season being a tale of contrasts, the Steelers had trouble making those big time plays in big time moments; the defense was no exception to that.
For being the highest-paid defense in the league, there was a lot left to be desired buried in the 9-8 record. Tomlin saw one of the best defensive units in NFL history in 2008 and rode that unit to a Super Bowl XLIII victory. Since then, Tomlin looks to have trouble recreating that defense and it has been evident in recent seasons. But with that said, last week Watt revealed what exactly has to happen for them to become the second-coming of that elite 2008 defensive powerhouse:
“We wanted to stress this whole previous off-season of stopping the run, we definitely got better in that category. But we’re usually used to the splash plays. The interceptions, the forced fumbles, the sacks. All of those types of tipped balls and things that are splashy, that are glamorous about playing defense. And we really didn’t have a lot of that this year. We could have had a lot more of those plays. Some of those is just stand in your gap, the minute details that create those big splash plays.”
Let’s dive into one perspective of the science behind defensive splash plays. To start, we’ll consider the variables Watt mentioned being interceptions, forced fumbles, and sacks as being "splash plays." If we compile those numbers and configure them with the total defensive snap counts, we’ll be able to find the percentage of splash plays relative to the total plays, which we can consider to be the “splash play percentage.”
AP Photo/Jeff Dean
Steelers' Tre Norwood (#21) and TJ Watt (#90) celebrate an interception against the Cincinnati Bengals.
In the opening half of the season, the defense saw a total of 557 snaps in the first eight weeks. Of those, there were 27 splash plays. Once we do the math, that comes to a splash play percentage of 4.85 percent in that span. Looking at the games following the bye week, the defense saw a total of 507 snaps. Of those, we saw 41 splash plays. That math shows a splash play percentage of 8.09 percent. Clearly, we saw a vast improvement after the off-week. If we look at the season as a whole, the defense played 1,064 snaps and made 68 splash plays, which gives us a final percentage of 6.39 percent.
Let’s look at those same numbers from the 2008 season. In a season in which they only played 16 games, the defense tallied 997 snaps. Of those, they made 82 splash plays. That math comes to a splash play percentage of 8.22 percent. In comparing that with what we saw in 2022, there is a 28.6 percent difference between respective splash play percentages. That begs the question; what is the answer to get the defense to that 2008 number heading into next season? The answer is Watt.
To reiterate, the value Watt brings to the field is more than his $112 million price tag. When he missed seven games of the season due to his torn pectoral, the team suffered; this is no secret. Seeing as though Watt is pushing for more splash plays in 2023, let’s look at the numbers when he’s on the field versus off the field.
Karl Roser/Pittsburgh Steelers
Chris Wormley (#95) and the Steelers defense celebrate a splash play against the Indianapolis Colts.
In the seven games Watt missed, the defense posted 457 total plays. Of those, they produced 14 splash plays which results in a lousy 3.06 percent splash play percentage. Here is where it gets interesting. In the games where Watt played, the defense posted 607 snaps. Of those, they made 54 splash plays. Once we do the math, that comes to a splash play percentage of 8.9 percent. To help with memory, the 2008 defense posted an 8.22 percentage. This proves that Watt is the catalyst to bringing the defense back into the history books.
There is no question of the value Watt brings to the defense. This is something that has been widely recognized across the NFL and the Steelers agreed to the tune of that $112 million extension before the 2021 season. For fans who remember that historic 2008 defense, that elite level of play has seemingly been lost for years, never to be found again. But if the numbers above indicate anything, it is that with Watt, the 2023 Steelers’ defense is slated to be better than the Super Bowl-winning 2008 unit. We are dangerously close to seeing another historic defense return to Pittsburgh and that pulse starts with Watt.
Do you think the defense is close to becoming elite in 2023? What do you think they have to do to get there? Let us know in the comments below!
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