As we approach the 2023 NFL season it is hard not to get excited about the potential of the Pittsburgh Steelers. On paper, which we know means very little after watching the Cleveland Browns be the "on paper champions" every year, Omar Khan has put together a very solid team for Mike Tomlin by making big additions through free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft.
Photo Credit: Jordan Schofield | SteelerNation (Twitter: @JSKO_PHOTO)
Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin on the sidelines during pregame of the team's 2022 matchup with the New York Jets.
Someone who has been set up possibly the best out of anyone returning from last year's team is third-year running back, Najee Harris.
Harris has been the Steelers' featured back the last two seasons after being selected in the first round of 2021 NFL Draft, but has had some up and downs over that time. He doesn't deserve all the blame, as some questionable offensive line play, among other things, contributed to a less than stellar situation for the young running back.
However, going into the 2023 season, Harris should be grinning from ear to ear with the opportunity he has in front of him.
From his rookie season to his second year in 2022, the Steelers added a new starting center and right guard in Mason Cole and James Daniels, which did end up improving their offensive line significantly by year's end from their 2021 group. They didn't stop there though, as this past offseason they added a new left tackle and left guard to the mix by drafting Broderick Jones and signing Isaac Seumalo to a big contract during free agency. Adding those pieces alongside the lone holdover from 2021, Chukwuma Okorafor, now has the Steelers looking as though they have a top 10 unit up front on offense.
Jordan Schofield | SteelerNation (Twitter: @JSKO_PHOTO)
Steelers right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor is the lone player remaining from the Steelers' 2021 starting offensive line.
All of these additions don't even mention the fact that the Steelers also re-signed tight end Zach Gentry, who was their primary blocking tight end in 2022, and drafted Darnell Washington who profiles as a NFL ready blocker, despite being a rookie.
With all of these additions, as well as what we all hope for with improvement from second-year quarterback, Kenny Pickett, Harris should easily be able to put together the best season of his short NFL career. In order to do so, Harris would need to top the 1,200-yard mark on the ground and record more than 7 rushing touchdowns, but the biggest improvement Steeler Nation should expect is in his yards per carry. He has never topped 3.9 YPC in the NFL.
Steelers Need Harris To Have His Best Season To Date
Due to the nature of Harris' running style and lack of true breakaway runs (40+ yards), his yards per carry will always tend to be slightly lower than some other top running backs. However, with the offensive line and other pieces around him in the Steelers' 2023 offense, there are little excuses as to why he shouldn't be able to get up to around 4.5 YPC.
If Harris is to make the significant jump we all are expecting, is it really out of the question that he could break the Steelers' single-season rushing record? Barry Foster currently owns that record for the Black and Gold, as he rushed for 1,690 yards on 390 attempts back in 1992.
In order for Harris to eclipse that mark set by Foster, he will need to easily clear the 300 rushing attempt mark. Getting that many carries shouldn't be overly difficult as long as he is effective, as he already cleared that mark with 307 rushing attempts in 2021. In addition to that, Tomlin and whoever is running their offense has a tendency to lean heavily on their lead backs throughout the years.
Since 2007 when Tomlin took over, four separate running backs have cleared the 300 attempt mark in a season, which is the most by any team over that same stretch. That list includes Willie Parker (2007), Rashard Mendenhall (2010), Le'Veon Bell (2017), and Harris (2021). Mendenhall topped that list with 324 carries, and Harris could easily push to overtake that total in 2023.
Justin K. Aller
Rashard Mendenhall was the Steelers' lead back for three seasons, recording a whopping 324 carries in 2010
I mentioned earlier that averaging 4.5 YPC should be a goal for Harris, as well as somewhat of an expectation from Steeler Nation for him to come close to that with all of the upgrades the offense has made. If he were to reach that mark, he would need to carry the ball 376 times in 2023 in order to break Foster's record setting season. I am not saying that won't happen, but that seems kind of unlikely at this point in time.
Now, let's say Harris has a better season on a per attempt basis than we all expect and ends up around the 5.0 mark in 2023. That would mean Harris would still need at least 339 rushing attempts in order to eclipse the mark left by Foster in 1992.
It is needless to say by this point, but if Harris is able to put up those kind of numbers this upcoming season, the Steelers will be in great shape for a deep playoff run. Even if he doesn't, which at this point is likely much higher expectations than we should hold Harris too, the Steelers still appear to be in a much better place offensively than last season.
What do you think about the potential for Harris and the Steelers' offense in 2023? Do you think it is fair to expect Harris to break Foster's record? Let us know in the comments below!
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