In the world of sports betting, one additional bit of information can dramatically change the statistical results of a game, especially for Pittsburgh Steelers fans. It’s often he who has a grain of more knowledge than somebody else that enjoys the upper hand in a bet. For that reason, injuries are often a can’t-miss detail before games. It will factor in a lot more under certain circumstances, however, while in others it can be miniscule. Today we are going to take a close look.
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Linebacker Cole Holcomb being carted off with a season-ending injury during the 2023 campaign.
Examples of pre-game odds people normally bet on
Normally, leading up to sports matches, people tend to bet on the same traditional outcomes of a game, across different sports. These can be placed as single bets or combined for series or system bets on online websites like odds96. The outcomes most often bet on include:
The money line: for this statistic, you are betting outright on which team or player you expect to win. Of course certain teams are more favored by betting contours to win than others. So the way that is accounted for is by bettors winning more money if they bet on the underdog and win and less money if they bet on the favorite and win. For instance, with a money line of -150, by betting on that favorite, you’d have to bet $150 to win $100, while if you bet on the underdog, you get to just bet $100 to win $150.
Point spread: the favorite team is given a handicap and the underdog receives a head start. For instance, a favored team given an odds of -3.5 will have to outscore the opponent by 4 points (since there are no half points) to cover the spread, while if you bet on the underdog, they could lose by only 2 points and you’d still win the bet.
Over/Under: bet that the total points scored by both teams will be greater or less than the projected amount.
Futures bets: betting on events far off in the future, such as the teams playing in a championship or a player’s individual performance, like who will lead the league in goals or become the MVP.
Prop bets: these are wagers on specific events within a game that might not actually influence the game’s outcome. They can be player specific, such as whether a certain player will eclipse a certain number of assists.
Individual stats or team stats: total goals, yards scored, or batting average as examples.
How much certain betting statistics change based on a player's injury
Certain injuries occurring could completely derail the fate of a game or not even affect it whatsoever. It all depends on the player that was hurt, and whether or not the injury was significant.
Star players
Players like TJ Watt or George Pickens have a massive effect on most betting outcomes. With one of those players out, the moneyline can move by as much as 100 to 200 points. The point spread can shift by as many as 3 to 7 points in football. If Watt were to get injured for instance, his team might go from being favored by 6.5 points to just 2 or 3 points. In this case, the over/under total tends to drop by 5-10 points in football. For supporting players, this is usually a good sign for their statistics, since they will have to step up for their team on that day and have opportunities to outperform their normal stats with the star player gone.
Associated Press
Steelers' TJ Watt leaves game with injured knee in poor weather conditions the NFL could have avoided.
Role (secondary) players & specialists
Role players could include slot wide receivers or interior defensive linemen like Keeanu Benton. Specialists could be punters or kickers like Chris Boswell. The moneyline may shift 50-100 points while the spread could change by 1-2 points for both of these types.
Defensive players
Dominant defensive players are important as well. In the NFL, the most important player on the field after the quarterback is a team’s main edge rusher, like Watt. With one of these guys missing the game, the moneyline could change by 50-150 points, with the spread likely shifting around 3 points. The over would likely go higher too.
Health Grades broke down the 7 sports most likely to cause injuries in an article and why. Leading the pack is basketball.
How reporting of injuries before a game works and what led to this system of injury reporting
The injury reporting system we see today has evolved significantly over time. Several decades ago, injury reports were often vague or inconsistent with the public missing out on a lot of the information and privileged people getting privileged information on bets. John Hopkins Medicine recently provided a list of the most common injuries suffered in sports. Since that time, there has been an ever greater requirement to disclose any relevant information on a daily basis.
FOX NFL
Steelers' Joey Porter Jr. gets injured during a game against the Baltimore Ravens.
Injury designations
In the United States, sports leagues tend to have the following designations:
Out: they will certainly not participate in the game;
Doubtful: the player has less than a 50% chance of playing;
Questionable: the player has a 50% chance of playing;
Probable: the player is expected to play, despite being ailed by some minor issues.
When statistics are most and least vulnerable to player injuries
Let’s talk about the situations in which a certain player being injured would have the biggest effect on game statistics as well as the least.
Most vulnerable betting statistics:
Point spread, over/under, and money line: these are most heavily affected the more important the player, the more high-powered the offenses, and the better the weather;
Player prop bets: players will be significantly more or less likely to hit a certain game milestone.
Least vulnerable:
Certain defensive stats: like tackles or sacks tend to be less sensitive to individual injuries;
Moneyline, point spread, and over/under: will be less affected if there is inclement weather or both teams have a strong defense and/or a weak offense.
